The Thanksgiving weekend is traditionally a significant time for filmmakers and cinema enthusiasts alike, often setting the stage for the year-end sales surge and determining the overall health of the film industry. In 2023, audiences are expected to flock to theaters as marquee titles are set to debut. The anticipated release of Disney’s “Moana 2,” in conjunction with prominent films like Universal’s “Wicked” and Paramount’s “Gladiator II,” presents a unique opportunity for box office revenues to soar.
Experts predict that these three heavyweights could potentially transform the movie-going landscape this Thanksgiving. “Moana 2” is forecast to achieve a box office take of between $120 million and $150 million throughout the holiday weekend, a figure that would position it among the highest-grossing Thanksgiving releases in recent memory. When combined with the performances of “Wicked” and “Gladiator II,” analysts believe that this Thanksgiving might clear the $200 million mark—a significant milestone not reached since 2019.
“Thanksgiving has turned into a sort of box office bellwether,” notes Shawn Robbins, an analyst with extensive experience in box office forecasting. The convergence of significant releases catering to a diverse audience from children to adults demonstrates a strategic advantage. “The cinematic offerings at this time are not just a feast for families but a chance for diverse audiences to indulge in compelling storytelling,” Robbins emphasizes.
Reflecting on past successes, the Thanksgiving weekend of 2018 remains the zenith in terms of box office performance, grossing an impressive $315 million with films such as “Ralph Breaks the Internet” leading the charge. Comparatively, the past few years have shown dropping numbers for this holiday period, especially during the pandemic years when the box office faced unforeseen challenges. The 2013 Thanksgiving holiday also stands out with a revenue of $294.2 million from its slate of films.
“Thanksgiving is a pivotal time for theaters,” asserts Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore. The outcome of this extended weekend not only influences the current state of the box office but also shapes industry perceptions. A promising Thanksgiving could lead to a robust finish to the year, while a lackluster performance might pose additional challenges for the industry in 2024.
For Disney, “Moana 2” arrives as a beacon of hope amidst a spate of underperforming animated films in recent years. Disney once commanded the Thanksgiving box office with consistent blockbusters, but recent titles such as “Strange World” and “Wish” have fallen short of expectations, raising questions about the studio’s animation strategy. Given that films like “Coco” and “Frozen II” have historically performed well during the Thanksgiving slot, “Moana 2” is under pressure to reclaim its position as a holiday favorite.
The nostalgia surrounding the original “Moana,” coupled with its status as a top-streamed film for families, positions the sequel favorably. “Family films have consistently found success over the holiday period, and I believe audiences are excited for ‘Moana 2’,” claims Robbins. Previous hits underscore this belief; in 2016, the original “Moana” grossed over $82 million, setting a solid foundation for its successor.
As the domestic box office gears up for this Thanksgiving, the landscape seems ripe for a revival, heralding a potential golden age for cinema after the pandemic’s uncertainties. With a healthy mix of animation, excitement, and nostalgia, this seasonal offering could spur audiences to return to theaters en masse, an encouraging sign for an industry eager to recover from its recent struggles.
As audiences contemplate their Thanksgiving weekend plans, the stage is set for a box office showdown. The combination of “Moana 2,” “Wicked,” and “Gladiator II” not only signals a return to form for major studios but also provides hope for an industry that thrives on the shared experience of moviegoing. If projections hold true, this Thanksgiving could turn out to be a watershed moment for the modern cinematic era.